Comment on Entry: Prediction Problems (Updated), authored by Jim Miller
1. I'm curious. Why would they poll statewide for City of Seattle Mayor and King County Exec.?

Posted by SouthernRoots at November 2, 2009 02:29 PM
2. A new poll on the race for King County executive came out today.

Posted by Luigi Giovanni at November 2, 2009 02:34 PM
3. http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp

The results represent a reversal from previous polls by SurveyUSA.

Posted by silly susan not for me at November 2, 2009 02:46 PM
4. "A new poll on the race for King County executive came out today."

You are right. BTW, I searched both the Survey USA and the King 5 sites this afternoon and didn't see it in either place.

Here's the Seattle Times story

Posted by Jim Miller at November 2, 2009 03:46 PM
5. Keep hoping.... the undecided vote broke for Constantine by 2-1. Survey USA has a new pole that has Constantine blowing out Hutchinson! Too bad - looks like the Democrats figured out how to win without actually performing.

When will king county ever figure it out?

Posted by jk at November 2, 2009 04:28 PM
6. Keep hoping.... the undecided vote broke for Constantine by 2-1. Survey USA has a new pole that has Constantine blowing out Hutchinson! Too bad - looks like the Democrats figured out how to win without actually performing.

When will king county ever figure it out?

Posted by jk at November 2, 2009 04:28 PM
7. Those who were sampled in the alleged latest Survey USA poll for County Exec indicate that collective electorate are amazingly apathetic, clueless with their taste where the sun don't shine if this result comes to fruition.

Just as #6 said; this King County electorate may never wake up and figure it out. It will be sad to see this once innovative County keep moving further into the dark bowels of banana republic government. Un-freakin' believable !!

Posted by KDS at November 2, 2009 05:46 PM
8. Too bad, wingnuts.

Posted by Jarvis at November 2, 2009 07:24 PM
9. Too bad, wingnuts.

Posted by Jarvis at November 2, 2009 07:24 PM
10. Too bad, wingnuts.

Posted by Jarvis at November 2, 2009 07:24 PM
11. #9/10 - We know that you are another brain dead liberal progressive who tries to drag the rest of us down with yourself and keep King County a cess pool of corruption. May a cataclysmic event shake up you and your ilk.

Posted by KDS at November 2, 2009 07:43 PM
12. You wouldn't know an innovation if one hit you in the head.

Posted by KDS at November 2, 2009 07:57 PM
13. How do you put light rail on the I-90 bridge without not building another one - moonbat. It would be cheaper to install it on the 520 bridge because its shorter. Specifics on the symphony please - fthat is not the full story. Your lying is not innovative.

Posted by KDS at November 2, 2009 09:04 PM
14. Correction: Specifics on the symphony please ? that is not the full story.

Dow's all about cover-ups.

Posted by KDS at November 2, 2009 09:09 PM
15. mike posted:

uh, because susan was gonna bring innovation and 'fresh ideas' to fruition, right?

Dow's had how many years to show his innovation and "fresh ideas"? If you're happy with the same old, tired, ideas, the failed policies of the past continuing on then by all means Dow's your man. He's part of the problem, not the solution.

HOPE AND CHANGE!

Posted by Shanghai Dan at November 2, 2009 09:19 PM
16. Just as Rossi stepped in it by saying he would "look at revamping our minimum wage law" Susan stepped in it by saying she would consider light rail on 520 as opposed to I-90. These statements, fairly or unfairly, played into their opponents characterization that "they were not in line with king county voters".

These candidates have to learn that you never, ever, ever say you are going to go against a popular voter initiative, this just gives these left-of-center voters a reason not to take a chance on voting for them.

Posted by jk at November 2, 2009 09:25 PM
17. The closing of Dow Constantine in polls the night before election day shouldn't surprise anyone. King County is overwhelmingly Democrat -- it just is. Only one legislative district fully within the county has complete Republican representation -- the 5. 31, split between King and Pierce counties, is also fully Republican. One Republican serves in the state legistlature from a Democrat-majority district in King County -- Skip Priest. Bellevue, Bothell, Kirkland, Woodinville, Renton, Kent have gone D. Probably permanently. Auburn and Federal Way are still up for grabs.

So at the best, 7 Republicans represent the county on the state level out of, what, 45 seats? That Susan Hutchison was a social conservative as well, or at least made herself attackable from that angle, did her in here. It will do every Republican in here, unless you can convince Olympia Snowe to move to Lake Sammamish.

What I think is clear, though, is that Susan Hutchison is more electable statewide than in King County. She did a creditable job campaigning, is certainly personable and approachable and makes a very strong case that she is a polticial outsider. She can appeal to suburban voters in Snohomish and Pierce counties, to the moderate Democrats of the Olympic Peninsula, the upper East Sound and Clark County, even if, in a statewide race, she has to declare party affiliation.

Posted by Todd Reeves at November 2, 2009 10:39 PM
18. Matt Barreto, who conducts the University of Washington Poll, is very consistent about what they do when conducting county or city-level polling. It's called oversampling, doing more interviews within a universe (Seattle, King County, etc.). It results in a sample size of n=400 in these cases, some of which are not included with the statewide poll to maintain proportionately. According to a response to an article published in The Stranger (link):

The Seattle oversample was an n of 400; and so was the King County oversample...

Matt has always been very responsive when I email him, as are many pollsters. Oftentimes, when there's a question about the quality/nature of a poll, it's worthwhile posing it to the pollster first. Even if you find the answer unconvincing, it's probably better than assuming the methodology. At least, I've found this.

Best.

Posted by Benjamin Anderstone at November 3, 2009 12:32 AM
19. Here's hoping King County can finally extricate themselves from the sewer of oppression and join the free world. And there may just be enough anger and frustration with the present "business as usual" regime to do it.

Posted by Saltherring at November 3, 2009 05:25 AM
20. "it's nearly impossible to feasibly place light rail on the 520. beyond that, the voters opted to put it on the I-90, which was also designed for a BART-style system. it's actually significantly more expensive to put it on the 520, and would most likely result in cancellation of east link."

They haven't built the new 520 bridge yet, you idiot ! For I-90, they would have build a new bridge that would solely support light rail - studies have shown that the current structure cannot support the weight of a light rail system.

Where do you get your fact and stats that don't add up ? It's morons like you who vote in the big government leftists that keep bringing government to our knees like the $56 M debt that King County owes, thanks in part to Constantine.

Posted by KDS at November 3, 2009 07:04 AM
21. mike: Less educated voters approve of Hutchison while Constantine has a double digit lead among more educated and more affluent voters

From whose arse is that data pulled?

Must be nice to be SO intelligent, to be so more highly evolved than others on this blog... why aren't you running for office such that you can rule over all that are beneath you.

BTW, ever heard of the Shift key? The lack of use is almost as telling as to how bright one is as those who use all caps.

Posted by yaddacubed at November 3, 2009 08:49 AM
22. "...Typically, they favor 19th century modes of transportation..."

Like the automobile? It was invented well before 1900.

"...and 19th century ideas about treating the races differently."

If you're equating different skin tones with actual species, then you've got little standing to lecture anyone else about modern values.

"...Often, they have an exaggerated respect for authority figures..."

Progressives worship Rush Limbaugh.

"...thinking that ordinary people are not very good at looking after their own interests."

Social Security is a big-government program. Enron was a private enterprise. Which pays better now?


Posted by tensor at November 3, 2009 10:34 PM
23. I agree with tensor that your last paragraph is simply boneheaded, Mr. Miller.

SR-520 is simply not feasible for a light rail crossing. Hutchison was dead wrong about it.

Posted by John Jensen at November 4, 2009 01:06 PM
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